KAMPALA Uganda (UGNEWSLINE) – Despite a 64 per cent decline in new infections since 2010, Uganda faces a growing challenge in preventing HIV among young people, particularly adolescent girls and young women, according to the 2026 National HIV and AIDS statistics.
Uganda continues to make significant progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS, but persistently high new infections among young people, especially adolescent girls and young women, threaten the country’s ambition of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
The latest national HIV estimates, presented at a press briefing on November 3, 2026, show that approximately 34,000 new HIV infections were recorded in 2025, despite a 64 per cent reduction from the levels recorded in 2010.
Young people aged 15–24 accounted for 38 per cent, approximately 13,000, of these new infections. Young women contributed 77 per cent of infections in this age group, highlighting the disproportionate vulnerability of girls and young women to HIV.
The statistics indicate that HIV prevalence among young women aged 15–24 stands at approximately 2 per cent, compared with 1 per cent among their male counterparts.
Overall, Uganda has an estimated 1.567 million people living with HIV, including approximately 1.496 million adults aged 15 years and above and 71,000 children aged 0–14.
HIV prevalence among adults aged 15 and above stands at 5.9 per cent, while prevalence among those aged 15–49 is 5.5 per cent. Women remain disproportionately affected, with prevalence at 7.2 per cent compared with 3.5 per cent among men.
Women account for 66.3 per cent of adults living with HIV, while men constitute 33.7 per cent.
Geographical hotspots raise concern
The national estimates reveal significant geographical variations in HIV prevalence, with some regions and urban centres recording considerably higher rates than the national average.
South Western Uganda has the highest regional prevalence at 8 per cent, followed by South Buganda at 7.3 per cent, North Buganda at 7.2 per cent and Mid North at 6.8 per cent.
Karamoja and West Nile have the lowest reported prevalence, at 1.3 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.
At district and city level, programme data identifies Fort Portal City as a major hotspot, with HIV prevalence of 16.7 per cent. Kalangala follows at 12.1 per cent, while Kabarole records 10.7 per cent.
The figures point to the need for geographically targeted prevention interventions, particularly in communities and urban centres with a high concentration of infections.
Key populations account for majority of new infections
The statistics also highlight the continued concentration of HIV infections among key and priority populations.
These groups account for an estimated 55–70 per cent of new infections, equivalent to between 20,300 and 25,900 cases annually.
Reported HIV prevalence among these populations remains particularly high, standing at 31 per cent among female sex workers, between 22 and 29 per cent among fisherfolk, 25 per cent among truck drivers, 16 per cent among people who inject drugs and 13 per cent among men who have sex with men.
The findings underscore the importance of targeted prevention, accessible testing, treatment and other evidence-based interventions for populations that experience heightened vulnerability to HIV.
The Uganda AIDS Commission has also warned of deteriorating behavioural and structural indicators, including increasing multiple sexual partnerships, suboptimal condom use during high-risk sexual encounters and rising sexual violence.
These factors could undermine the progress achieved through decades of HIV prevention and treatment programmes.
Mother-to-child transmission declines, but gaps persist
Uganda has registered considerable progress in preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV, with vertical infections declining by 78 per cent since 2010 to approximately 4,400 cases in 2025.
The mother-to-child transmission rate stands at 2.18 per cent at six weeks and 5.9 per cent after breastfeeding.
However, new maternal HIV infections during pregnancy and breastfeeding, alongside interruptions in antiretroviral treatment, remain significant contributors to infections among children.
According to the estimates, 37 per cent of vertical infections are associated with new maternal infections during pregnancy and breastfeeding, while 46 per cent are linked to mothers dropping out of antiretroviral therapy during these periods.
The figures highlight the need to strengthen HIV prevention services for pregnant and breastfeeding women, improve treatment retention and ensure continuous follow-up of mothers and exposed infants.
Treatment gains offer hope
Despite the challenges in preventing new infections, Uganda has maintained strong performance in HIV diagnosis, treatment and viral suppression.
Among adults aged 15 years and above living with HIV, 85.3 per cent know their HIV status. Of those diagnosed, 99.1 per cent are receiving antiretroviral therapy, while 96.5 per cent have achieved viral suppression.
However, disparities remain between men and women in knowing their HIV status.
Among men living with HIV, 79.9 per cent know their status, compared with 86.6 per cent of women.
Treatment coverage among diagnosed men stands at 99.6 per cent, while 99.1 per cent have achieved viral suppression. Among women who know their status, 98.9 per cent are on treatment and 95.4 per cent have achieved viral suppression.
Children continue to experience wider gaps across the treatment cascade. Only 71 per cent of children living with HIV know their status. Of those diagnosed, 93 per cent are receiving treatment, while 88 per cent have achieved viral suppression.
The figures suggest that although Uganda has made substantial progress in enrolling diagnosed people on treatment, more effort is required to identify undiagnosed individuals, particularly men and children.
AIDS-related deaths have also declined by 66 per cent since 2010, reaching approximately 19,000 in 2025. Adults accounted for 85 per cent of the deaths, while children represented 15 per cent.
Financing concerns and the 2030 target
Speaking at the press briefing, Uganda AIDS Commission Board Chairperson Canon Dr Ruth Senyonyi said the country had made considerable progress but warned that persistent new infections, particularly among young people, could jeopardise the 2030 targets.
She said the National HIV and AIDS Symposium would provide an opportunity for researchers, policymakers, development partners and implementing organisations to examine the country’s progress and identify gaps requiring urgent intervention.
Senyonyi emphasised the importance of sustainable financing, noting that Uganda must progressively transition from donor-dependent programmes to a stronger domestically financed HIV response.
She also acknowledged that essential HIV services had remained resilient despite significant external financing shocks, attributing this partly to government stewardship and efforts to integrate HIV services into primary healthcare.
The Uganda AIDS Commission has developed an HIV Sustainability Roadmap to guide the transition towards a more sustainable national response.
Acting Director General of the Uganda AIDS Commission also highlighted the need to address the high HIV burden among adolescent girls and young women, engage men in prevention and strengthen interventions in urban hotspots.
The country is pursuing the Presidential Fast-Track Initiative launched in 2017 by President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, which seeks to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
The initiative focuses on engaging men in HIV prevention, accelerating testing and treatment, eliminating mother-to-child transmission, ensuring sustainable financing and strengthening coordination of the national response.
However, the latest estimates indicate that Uganda risks falling short of its ambition to achieve a 90 per cent reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 2030 unless prevention efforts are significantly intensified.
National symposium to examine gaps in HIV response
The latest statistics were released ahead of the 2026 National HIV and AIDS Symposium, scheduled for November 16–18 at Mbarara University of Science and Technology’s Pharmacology Grounds.
Organised by the Uganda AIDS Commission in partnership with Mbarara University of Science and Technology and other stakeholders, the symposium will run under the theme: Sustainable Interventions to End AIDS as a Public Health Threat by 2030.
The three-day event will feature the Annual Joint AIDS Review, a scientific meeting, an HIV financing dialogue, a partnership forum and the commemoration of Philly Lutaaya Memorial Day.
According to Senyonyi, the symposium will provide a platform for sharing research findings, reviewing implementation strategies and identifying sustainable financing mechanisms for the national HIV response.
More than 120 research abstracts have been received for scientific discussions, reflecting growing interest in evidence-based approaches to HIV prevention, treatment and care.
The Uganda AIDS Commission is also expanding discussions around HIV cure research, with an emphasis on scientific, ethical and social considerations and the importance of involving communities in the process.
The symposium will also commemorate the legacy of Philly Lutaaya, whose advocacy for openness and disclosure helped challenge HIV-related stigma and discrimination.
The challenge ahead
Uganda’s HIV response presents two contrasting realities: significant achievements in treatment and survival, alongside persistent weaknesses in preventing new infections.
The decline in AIDS-related deaths and mother-to-child transmission demonstrates the impact of sustained investment in HIV services. However, the continued burden among young women, key populations and children signals that existing prevention strategies need renewed attention.
The national estimates were compiled by an HIV Estimates Technical Working Group comprising experts from the Ministry of Health, Uganda AIDS Commission, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, World Health Organization, UNAIDS, the United States Government’s CDC and implementing partners.
The group used Spectrum and Naomi mathematical models, validated national health and demographic data, and international peer review by UNAIDS and Avenir Health. HIV prevalence and the treatment cascade estimates also draw on the recently released Uganda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment data.
As Uganda approaches the 2030 deadline, the central challenge will be translating its impressive treatment achievements into a substantial reduction in new infections.
Without stronger prevention programmes, improved protection of adolescent girls and young women, sustained maternal treatment and increased domestic financing, the country risks losing ground in the final phase of its campaign to end AIDS as a public health threat.
