The United Nations (UN) has issued a stark warning that, without the restoration or replacement of US funding, HIV infections could surge globally by as much as 2,000 new cases per day, potentially leading to a tenfold increase in AIDS-related deaths, with figures reaching into the millions over the next several years.
Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of UNAIDS, expressed grave concern during a press briefing in Geneva on March 24, 2025.
She noted that the sudden withdrawal of US funding has led to the closure of numerous clinics and the layoffs of thousands of healthcare workers, stressing that as a result, “we are bracing for an alarming rise in new infections.
UNAIDS has projected that the world could witness 2,000 new infections daily.
In the wake of President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze nearly all US foreign aid upon taking office on January 20, the global fight against HIV/AIDS has faced a significant setback. Although the US Department of State initially stated that critical life-saving HIV programs under the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) would continue, Byanyima noted that the broader disruption to health funding and essential services has had a devastating effect on those living with HIV/AIDS.
She further emphasized the dire long-term implications of a sustained funding freeze, warning that if financial support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID) is not reinstated following the 90-day funding pause in April, or replaced by another option, the global toll could be catastrophic.
“Without renewed funding, we estimate that over the next four years, an additional 6.3 million people could succumb to AIDS-related deaths. We will witness a tragic reversal to the devastating mortality rates of the 1990s and early 2000s,” she asserted.
These projections were derived from UNAIDS’ own modelling, though Byanyima did not provide specific details on the methodology used to generate these estimates.
The most recent data from UNAIDS indicates that there were approximately 600,000 AIDS-related deaths worldwide in 2023.
UNAIDS, the UN agency responsible for coordinating the global response to HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment, received $50 million in core funding from the United States last year, constituting 35% of the agency’s overall budget.
The Trump administration has defended its decision to freeze foreign aid, citing alignment with the president’s “America First” policy. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has dismissed concerns about the cessation of foreign aid, asserting that waivers had been issued to ensure the continuation of life-saving services.
